AUDUSD and NZDUSD Set Negative Themes with Risks of Bearish Shifts

Technical Analysis

The Antipodean currencies, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have both suffered significant losses thus far in 2016, rejecting potential bullish signals. Moreover, this leaves both AUDUSD and NZDUSD aiming at the lower end of Q4 ranges, with risks growing for a more bearish shift in January.

AUDUSD

The Wednesday plunge close to .7035 leaves a bear bias for Thursday.

Although this activity reinforces the broader range environment for early January, the strong threat is for a bearish shift below .7014.

For This Week:

  • We see a downside bias for .7035; break here aims for .7014, 7000 and maybe .6970.
  • But above .7094 opens risk up to .7128, maybe .7172.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by .7014 and .7385.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7385 aims higher for .7440/99 and .7681.
  • Downside: Below .7014 sees risk lower for .693, .6894, .6857 and .6645.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

A further break of support through .6663/58 for a still negative bias into Thursday.

The roll lower from late December reinforces our broader range theme, with a rejection now of a bull breakout in early January.

For This Week:

  • We see a downside bias through .6622 for .6590; break here aims for .6572 and maybe .6509, which we would look to try to hold.
  • But above .6662 opens risk up to .6708.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .6897 and .6427.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .6897 aims higher for .6924/30 and .7000/09/12.
  • Downside: Below .6427 sees risk lower for .6232, .6154 and .6000.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

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