Cautious Behaviour in Forex Markets from Most Major Currencies

Leading currencies remained fairly steady as trading got underway on Tuesday morning.

The single European currency, which is facing a number of significant data releases this week, remained largely unchanged in the EUR/USD pair at $1.1307. This represented a marginal rise for the currency of under 0.1%.

The US dollar remained fixed against the Japanese currency, and commanded 112.00 yen. These two currencies are particularly in the spotlight at the moment given ongoing trade talks between the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a senior minister in the Japanese government, Toshimitsu Motegi.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar saw no rises in the AUD/USD pair, resting at just $0.7174. However, it continues to be close to its highest point in almost two months – a milestone it reached last week.

The reticence of forex traders to make big decisions was due in part to worries over major data releases which are due in the coming days.

Recent decisions by central banks to reconsider interest rate rises has been fuelled by a perception that the global economy is beginning to falter. Traders and analysts are looking to releases out this week to confirm or contradict that assumption.

Today (Tuesday) there will be a number of employment-related data releases from the UK. The unemployment rate for February will be out at 8.30am GMT and is expected to show no change from its last position of 3.9%.

The claimant count rate for March, meanwhile, is expected to show a change from 27,000 to 20,000 when it is released at the same time. Average earnings figures (excluding bonuses) will also be released, and this is forecast to show no change from 3.4%.

Later in the day, the US Redbook Index for the dates around April 12^th will be out at 12.55pm GMT. Month on month, this was last recorded at 0.1%.

Industrial production figures for the month of March are expected at 1.15pm GMT. These are due to show a change from 0.0% to 0.3%, month on month.

The New Zealand consumer price index for the first quarter of the year will be the significant release of the evening and is forecast to show a slight change from 1.9% to 1.8% when it is released at 10.45pm GMT.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, Japanese industrial production information for February is expected to come out at 4.30am GMT. Month on month, it is expected to remain static at 1.4%.

British consumer price index information for March is expected at 8.30am GMT. This is expected to show a year on year change from 1.9% to 1.6%.

European trade balance information for March is expected at 9am GMT, while Europe-wide consumer price index information will be out at the same time. Year on year, this latter metric is expected to show no change from its last position of 1.4%.

The Bank of Canada’s core consumer price index for the month of March will be out at 12.30pm GMT. This index was last recorded in a year on year position of 1.5%.